Gerald Celente : Revolution next for U.S.

Extract from wikipedia:- Gerald Celente (born November 29, 1946) is a United States trend forecaster,publisher of the Trends Journal, business consultant and author who makes predictions about the global financial markets and other events of historical importance. An article in the Washington Times has claimed "Celente's accurate forecasts include the 1987 stock market crash, the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the 1997 Asian currency crash" and "the 2007 subprime mortgage scandal." His forecasts since 1993 have included predictions about terrorism, economic collapses and war. More recent forecasts involve fascism in the United States, food riots and tax revolts. Celente has long predicted global anti-Americanism, a failing economy and immigration woes in the US. In December 2007 Celente wrote, "Failing banks, busted brokerages, toppled corporate giants, bankrupt cities, states in default, foreign creditors cashing out of US securities ... whatever the spark, the stage is set for panic in the streets" and "Just as the Twin Towers collapsed from the top down, so too will the US economy ... when the giant firms fall, they’ll crush the man on the street." He has also predicted tax revolts. In November 2008 Celente appeared on Fox Business Network and predicted economic depression, tax rebellions and food riots in the United States by 2012. Celente also predicted an "economic 9/11" and a "panic of 2008." In 2009 Celente predicted turmoil which he described as "Obamageddon" and he was a popular guest on conservative cable-TV shows such as Fox News Sunday and Glenn Beck's news program. In April 2009 Celente wrote, "Wall Street controls our financial lives; the media manipulates our minds. These systems cannot be changed from within. There is no alternative. Without a revolution, these institutions will bankrupt the country, keep fighting failed wars, start new ones, and hold us in perpetual intellectual subjugation."He appeared on the Fox/Glenn Beck show and criticized the US stimulus plan, calling government controlled capitalism "fascism" and saying shopping malls in the US would become "ghost malls."Celente has said, "smaller communities, the smaller groups, the smaller states, the more self-sustaining communities, will 'weather the crisis in style' as big cities and hypertrophic suburbias descend into misery and conflict," and forecasts "a downsizing of America."

10 Small Caps With High “Insider Ownership”

By Marc Norton on September 16, 2009 More Posts By Marc Norton Author's Website

All 10 stocks mentioned below offer double digit rates of return on equity as well as assets. ROE is a corporations measurement of how profitable the company is with the money shareholders have invested. ROA shows how efficient management is at using its assets to generate earnings. All ten are trading at reasonable P/E ratios. All 10 mentioned have current ratios above 1.9, any thing above 1.5 shows that the company is capable at paying back short term debt. All 10 have a large inside ownership with modest to low debt and free cash flow, with each paying a dividend.

* Deep Value Investor Seth Klarman of The Baupost Group holds 8.49 million shares of BreitBurn Energy which accounts for over 16% of the stock.

Alice Schroeder, author of "The Snowball: Warren Buffett"

Sooner Rather Than Later

Posted by Conrad June 12, 2009 http://www.conradalvinlim.com/?p=1103 You enter a trade. It goes well for the first few moments. Then without warning, it turns and goes the wrong way! Horror of horrors! Now in the heat of the moment, you battle your wits for the best decision to make as the trade gets worse … cut now? … or wait a while more? The same thing happened last month. You decided to cut your losses fast. And as soon as you did, the trade turned around and went on to be a big winner had you not cut and run.

• “Why didn’t you wait?”
• “Why were you so hasty?”

Then last week, the same thing happened again and being smarter, you decided to hold out. The trade continued losing. The longer you held it, the more you lost. But you knew then that as soon as you cut your loss, it would have turned around. So you held on and the losses kept mounting.

• “Why didn’t I cut sooner?”
• “Why did I hold on for so long?”

By the time you made that cut, the loss was insurmountable. And the trade turned around right after the cut. Let’s resign ourselves to one fact; Whatever the decision, it will always be the wrong one. So a simple lesson in this is that if we are going to make a decision, it WILL always be the wrong one. Cutting losses fast will return the trade. Cutting too late will continue the trend. What ever you decide, the market is going to take the mickey out of you. So to overcome this dilemma, ask yourself a simple question: “Is it better to make the wrong decision sooner or later?” The answer is obvious, isn’t it? I don’t know why anyone, in their right mind, would want to prolong an agony. If any decision you make is going to be the wrong one, then get it over and done with it quickly. Here’s another line of logic … You know that the moment you cut, the trade will return. So why don’t you cut it quickly and be ready for another entry as soon as the trade returns? (okay, that is speculative … but it works for the psychology!) At least it is obviously better than running the losses deeper. Likewise, you know that you are always going to take profit too early. So what can you do? Answer: Make the wrong decision early because making it too late will surely eat away your profits or could even end up with profits becoming losses. But in profit taking, you do have the advantage of taking some profit and leaving some to be greedy. It is always a good way to manage your profits. Take it when you have it but do it in stages. For example, if you have 10 lots long and they’re making some money, take half off the table when you reach your time/profit target. Let the remaining five lots run. The worst that can happen now is you can still get out at break-even if the trade turns against you. If the 5 remaining lots continue the profitable trend, when the trade hits a resistance, or if it stalls, take three more lots of the table and see what happens to the last two. At this point in time, you’ll have no fear and nothing but greed to manage. Should the remaining two lots reverse, your worst case scenario is that you can still get out at breakeven on those two lots and still get to keep the profits of the first eight lots. In a best case scenario, you are now in a position to put on a trailing stop and let the profits of the last two run to the sky. So avoid procrastinating on your trading decision. Make it quick, make it sensible and make it happen … make it sooner and never later. Moral of the story is that in Trading, it is NOT “better late than never” because in Trading, late is as good as never.

A Stock Market Crash Is Coming...?

By KhronoStock on August 7, 2009 More Posts By KhronoStock Author's Website A lot of commentators have begun heralding a new bull market in stocks. Day after day, I hear that March was THE bottom, that the next bull market has begun, and that anyone betting on another collapse is a moron. These claims are not only wrong, they are completely misleading and should be depicted for what they are: nonsensical hype from sources with conflicted interests - folks whose jobs and income stem largely from people remaining bullish. More often than not, these are the same guys who claimed that Bear Stearns marked the end of the Financial Crisis (how’d that work out?) and that the Federal Reserve can pump our way back into a bull market (how’s that working out?). The reason this is entirely wrong is because this recession is not your average run of the mill excess inventory recession: the kind of economic contraction we’ve experienced post-WWII. No, this is a DE-flationary debt collapse, a bursting of a 30-year credit bubble that papered over enormous drops in real incomes, standards of living, and financial stability. The private sector hit a point of total debt saturation in 2007 This recession so far has been the first taste of DE-flation the US has experienced since the ‘30s. Comparing it to every other post-WWII recession is like comparing apples and oranges. A debt bubble cannot be re-flated by issuing more debt. A second-grader can understand this. I don’t know why guys with PhDs, alleged experts, and the like don’t get it. For 30 years, our economy grew by borrowing from the future. I mean that the US’s economic growth was funded largely by the use of credit: borrowings that would be paid back down the road. In simple terms, the economy grew based on imaginary, not REAL demand. We pulled forward future sales of cars, TVs, homes, and the like. By using credit, we bought things NOW, that we would have normally bought LATER. This pulled future sales, future corporate earnings, future incomes, and future economic growth to the NOW through the ‘70s, ‘80s, and ‘90s. So instead of having a safe, annual rate of consumer spending growth (say 4-5%), we saw double digit rates of growth: for example, between 1980 and 1990, credit card spending increased more than five-fold while average household credit card balances quadrupled. That’s NOT normal. This led to the single largest debt bubble in history ($49 trillion in private sector debt and $50+ trillion in public sector debt). And a debt bubble can continue until you can no longer meet debt payments. The private sector hit its “debt wall” in 2007. The public sector continues to grow its debts, creating an even larger bubble that will have even worse consequences. Now, as you know, there are only two ways of dealing with a debt problem: 1) Paying it off 2) Defaulting. The US consumer has begun both. From February to May of this year we paid off $45 billion in credit card debt. Consumer credit contracted $3.3 billion in May, the fourth consecutive monthly decline (this makes our current credit contraction the longest running since 1991). And we’re just getting started… Total consumer debt at the bubble’s peak was $2.57 trillion (the other $46 trillion was corporate). So the fact we’ve paid off about $50 billion of this means Joe America has a LOT more (98%) debt to pay back and default on before he’s finished de-leveraging his balance sheet. Folks, we’ve got a long, LONG ways to go before this crisis and Crash are over. Anyone who’s telling you the bear market is over either isn’t looking at the data or is basing their analysis on “a gut feeling” or some other nonsense. They’re all going to get destroyed this fall. Above, we detailed the difference between this current economic contraction, and your usual run of the mill plain vanilla recessions. We also went over the MASSIVE consumer credit contraction that needs to occur before American households have finished de-leveraging. Now, we’re detailing why stocks will crash this coming fall. As you know, the media is rife with folks calling the end of the recession and the beginning of a new bull market. It’s clear to me that this is a load of nonsense. I’ll show you why. Because a lot of the alleged “analysis” that is backing up the bulls’ claims of a new bull market comes from technical analysis and charts, I’m presenting the below chart from David Rosenberg of Gluskin Shef. It charts today’s bear market over that of 1929-1932. As you can see, today’s bear market is mirroring that of the ‘30s almost to perfection. Indeed, the correlation between the two charts is an incredible 0.8, meaning it’s 4/5ths perfect. In finance, you’re lucky if you get a correlation above 0.6. (gold and the dollar are only 0.28 inversely correlated). A 0.8 correlation is virtually unheard of. But that’s exactly how closely today’s market is mirroring that of the ‘30s. I can’t take full credit for this insight. Ron Coby, an investment manager at Coby Lamson in Oregon, first started pointing out the similarities between this market and that of 1929 back in February ‘09. No one wanted to listen to him then. They’re listening now. Coby notes that from October 29, 1929 until November 13, 1929, the stock market collapsed 49% (2008’s was 52%). Ron points out that the market then staged a 155-day rally of 50%. Today’s rally (starting in March ‘09) has lasted 150 days and the market is up an average of 50% (average of Nasdaq, DJIA, and S&P 500). Unfortunately for the bulls today, the 1929 market then rolled over and collapsed another 70%. “Bottom callers” INCLUDING legends like Jesse Livermore, Benjamin Graham and others bought ALL THE WAY DOWN, losing entire fortunes. Ok, so the charts for today and 1929 are identical, what about the earnings? After all, profits are ultimately what drive the stock market: you buy based on expected future earnings of the companies. Earnings today are even lower than they were in the ‘30s during the Great Depression. They’ve fallen 98% from their peak in 2007. Adjusted for inflation, stocks have NEVER been this unprofitable in the last 80 years. The US was already in a recession in 2008. And 2Q09 profits are actually down 31% even from THAT. Indeed, based on ACTUAL posted earnings, the S&P 500 is trading at a P/E of 700 today. Even if you go by operating earnings the multiple is still 24: hardly cheap. Looking over this, I can’t see where any claims of a “bull market” are coming from. The people who are saying today is a new bull market probably went long Tech Stocks in 2001, Housing in 2006, and Financials in 2008. In light of the rampant bullishness, the parabolic rally in the S&P 500, the horrific earnings, and the similarity between today’s rally and that of 1929, I believe the likelihood of another Crash (like 2008) is quite high. In fact, I would not be surprised to see stocks collapse within the next eight weeks.

Jesse Livermore, The Great Legendary Stock Operator

http://www.retirerichblog.com/2009/08/jesse-livermore-great-legendary-stock.html During his lifetime, Livermore gained and lost several multi-million dollar fortunes. Most notably, he was worth $3 million and $100 million after the 1907 and 1929 market crashes, respectively. He subsequently lost both fortunes. Apart from his success as a securities speculator, Livermore left traders a working philosophy for trading securities that emphasizes increasing the size of one's position as it goes in the right direction and cutting losses quickly. Livermore sometimes did not follow his own rules strictly. He claimed that his lack of adherence to his own rules was the main reason for his losses after making his 1907 and 1929 fortunes. The popular book Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, by Edwin Lefevre, reflects many of those lessons. Livermore himself wrote a less widely read book, "How to trade in stocks; the Livermore formula for combining time element and price". It was published in 1940, the same year he committed suicide. "Cash was, is, and always will be - king. Always have cash in reserve. Cash is the ammunition in your gun. My biggest mistake was not in following this rule more often. Time is not money because there may be times when your money should be inactive... Often money that is just sitting can be later moved into the right situation and make a fortune. Patience-Patience-Patience. Patience was the key to success - Don't be in a hurry." - Jesse Livermore. How To Trade In Stocks, 1940."I have suggested to people who are interested in the stock market that they carry around a small notebook, keep notes on interesting general market information, and perhaps develop their own stock market trading strategy. I always suggest that the first thing they write down in their little notebooks should be: 'Beware of inside information- all inside information!' " "The stock market must be studied, not casually, but deeply, and thoroughly. It's my conclusion that most people pay more attention to the purchase of an appliance for their house, or when buying a car, than they do to the purchase of stocks. The stock market , with its allure of easy money and fast action, induces people into foolishness and the careless handling of their hard earned money, like no other entity."

United States GDP Growth Rate

From http://www.retirerichblog.com/2009/08/united-states-gdp-growth-rate.html http://www.retirerichblog.com/2009/04/unemployment-chart-monthly-statistics.html United States GDP Growth rate 2008 Mar +2% 2008 Jun +1.6% 2008 Sept 0% 2008 Dec -1.9% 2009 Mar -3.3% 2009 Jun -3.9% Unemployment Chart Monthly Statistics 2007-07 4.60 2007-08 4.60 2007-09 4.70 2007-10 4.70 2007-11 4.70 2007-12 5.00 2008-01 4.90 2008-02 4.80 2008-03 5.10 2008-04 5.00 2008-05 5.50 2008-06 5.50 2008-07 5.70 2008-08 6.10 2008-09 6.10 2008-10 6.50 2008-11 6.70 2008-12 7.20 2009-01 7.60 Obama 2009-02 8.10 2009-03 8.50 13M now jobless 2009-04 8.90 2009-05 9.40 2009-06 9.50

JP Morgan (JPM): There are Cracks but the Foundation is Strong

InvestorGuide Stock of the Day Stock Analysis Let's evaluate the two competing arguments. The pro-JPM case rests on CEO Jamie Dimon and how he has been very effective in managing risk at the bank. JPM made the same mistakes as the rest of Wall Street when it came to the quality of mortgage assets on their book but the magnitude of exposure to residential real estate was much lower and better hedged. This meant the firm was able to take advantage of cheap acquisition opportunities in the form of Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual. Dimon has also gotten much better at lobbying Washington where government officials mostly like him and see him as a very competent leader. Additionally, there is much reduced competition on the street and that along with the upward sloping yield curve makes this a profitable trading environment for the firms that survived 2008. JP Morgan's two chief commercial banking competitors -- Bank of America (BAC: Charts, News, Offers) and Citigroup (C: Charts, News, Offers) -- have lost a lot of leverage with customers and regulators -- as they are both seen as wards of the state. This backdrop led JP Morgan to record a 36% jump in net income (to $2.7 billion) on a 39% year-over-year increase in revenue which rose to a record level of $27.7 billion. With short-term interest rates being close to zero, JPM was able to make $4.9 billion in revenue by exploiting wide credit spreads. JPM also took in a lot of equity underwriting business as the ranks of investment banks, with deep balance sheets to offer to clients, have dwindled. The investment banking division accounted for $1.5 billion of the $2.7 billion profit number. The case against JP Morgan uses these very same numbers. Yes, the second quarter was very profitable but let's remember JP Morgan is a commercial bank after all. It's not a hedge fund so don't count on that kind of fixed income trading performance again (plus spreads will narrow too) and it has never brought home the bacon consistently by operating as a white-shoe bulge bracket investment bank, so don't plan again on a quarter in which JPM outshines everybody (including Goldman) on the investment banking deal-making league tables. Therefore, for JPM to consistently perform well in the future, it will have to continue to rely on its bread-butter business of consumer and business banking. And that's where there are serious problems now and in the future. For example, JPM made only $15 million from retail banking this quarter as compared to $474 million last quarter and losses at the consumer lending division rose to $955 million from $389 million. And despite all the talk of an improving economy, housing loans continue to deteriorate with a $1.31 billion charge-off in this segment, up 4.61%. So the argument here is simple, JP Morgan's core business of lending continues to hemorrhage blood and with the unemployment rate slated to cross 10%, things will only get worse. Additionally, JPM will have to suffer more pain thanks to its commercial real estate portfolio which has yet to take major hits. So which of these two arguments carry more merit? Time (and the future course of the economy) will tell but we lean towards the first position because a) JP Morgan has set aside about $29 billion in loss reserves (or 5% of loans outstanding) providing it with a much bigger cushion than its competitors to deal with future losses and b) it may be time to start thinking of JP Morgan as more than just a commercial bank. The departure of Lehman and Merrill has probably created a void that needs to be filled by a blue-chip investment bank. JP Morgan could play that role well especially with Bear Stearns in its fold. Also, Bear was a powerhouse in the area of bond trading, something that JPM is finding very profitable.

Do We Cheer Banks’ Earnings?

By Zacks Investment Research on July 20, 2009 More Posts By Zacks Investment Research Author's Website Last week, after a round of “positive surprises” delivered by some of the major banks, we had “not so surprising” news of closure of five more banks, bringing to 57 the number of federally insured banks closed this year। It appears that the divide in the banking landscape between the “haves” and “have-nots” is increasing। Even among the big banks, there is now a clear two-tier system. On one hand, we have Goldman Sachs (GS: 158।31 -1.72 -1.07%) and JP Morgan (JPM: 36.80 -0.18 -0.49%), which delivered record profits from their trading and investment banking revenues. There is no doubt that these two managed their affairs well, have increased their market share after the collapse of Lehman and Bear Stearns and also have benefitted tremendously from the various programs by the Treasury and the regulators. And, we should not forget the generous AIG (AIG: 13.42 -0.04 -0.30%) payout to Goldman. On the other hand, the second-quarter profits of Bank of America (BAC: 12।01 -0.23 -1.88%) and Citigroup (C: 2.6703 -0.1197 -4.29%) were reliant on several one-time gains, resulting from asset sales etc, while weaknesses in some businesses and continued credit deterioration showed that there is more pain to come. Bank of America’s credit-card unit lost $1।6 billion amid rising delinquencies, compared with a year-ago profit of $582 million. Its home-loan and insurance unit lost $725 million. The bank reported $8.7 billion in credit losses, up from $3.6 billion in the year-ago quarter. Its nonperforming loans jumped to 3.3%, up from 1.1% a year ago. Like Goldman and JP Morgan, Bank of America’s results were aided by strong investment-banking and trading income following the merger with Merrill Lynch। But Citigroup saw decline in investment banking profits and it appears to be losing market share to stronger rivals. Citigroup reported $8।4 billion in net credit losses, nearly double the loss from a year ago. Incidentally, the CEO of Citigroup — after the bank had posted a sixth quarter of loss ($2.4 billion net loss on operational basis) in the last seven quarters — sounded most optimistic during the conference call, saying “the rate of growth in these consumer losses may be moderating.” Obviously he was trying to put on a brave face as the bank still faces an uncertain future. With spiking unemployment, these banks will face increasing credit card losses। Housing and Commercial Real Estate prices are still on a downward spiral and will cause more losses in the coming quarters. On the other hand, mortgage refinancing, which was one of the main reasons for supporting the revenues in the last two quarters, is expected to taper off as the rates are creeping up now. The smaller banks that do not enjoy the privilege of being “too big to fail” continue to struggle. The regulators shut two banks in California and two smaller banks in Georgia and South Dakota on Friday (something that has become the rule rather than the exception for Fridays). The 57 bank failures this year compare with 25 last year and just three in 2007. The latest round of failures is expected to cause a loss of $1.1 billion to the FDIC and bring the total cost of failures this year to $13.4 billion. And unfortunately, this trend is expected to continue for some time.

Hitachi Expanding Hybrid Cap

By Zacks Investment Research on July 4, 2009 More Posts By Zacks Investment Research Author's Website
Hitachi Ltd. (HIT: 31.44 +0.45 +1.45%), a Tokyo-based global conglomerate, is expected to supply advanced lithium-ion batteries to General Motors (GMGMQ.PK: 0.82 -0.0875 -9.64%) in 2010 for use in its gasoline hybrid-electric vehicles (HEV). The deal with GM will increase Hitachi’s production capacity for lithium-ion and expand its business in the automotive-related field. It will also meet rising demand for gas-electric cars.

Hitachi expects the global market for HEVs to expand from 690,000 units in 2007 to 1.5 million units in 2010. As a result, Hitachi estimates the demand for HEV lithium-ion batteries to overtake that of the current mainstream nickel metal hydride batteries by 2015. Toyota Motor (TM: 74.09 -1.21 -1.61%), which currently uses nickel-metal hydride batteries, will start using lithium-ion batteries for its plug-in hybrid cars for the first time.

The company has boosted capacity to handle demand. Currently, Hitachi produces 40,000 lithium-ion batteries per month and expects to increase production to 3,000,000 units. According to The Nikkei business daily, Hitachi will invest approximately ¥30 billion ($311 million) to raise production capacity.

Hitachi has declined to comment on the report. Hitachi’s lithium-ion battery systems will be installed annually in more than 100,000 hybrid-electric vehicles (HEV), which are scheduled for launch in the North American market in 2010.

The company was also recently awarded an order from U.S.-based Eaton Corporation (ETN: 42.99 -2.29 -5.06%) to supply motors, inverters, lithium-ion batteries and other components for Eaton’s hybrid power systems to be delivered through 2011. Plans call for commercial vehicles using Eaton’s hybrid system to be rolled out in markets in North America, Europe and Asia.
Hitachi plans to form a cross-business unit for lithium-ion industrial and automotive batteries and an R&D unit for next-generation batteries. In 2009, Hitachi converted Hitachi Koki, a manufacturer and seller of power tools into a consolidated subsidiary to foster increased research and development into lithium-ion battery-operated products.

Additionally, to develop and manufacture rechargeable lithium-ion batteries for hybrid electric vehicles and other applications, Hitachi merged Hitachi Unisia Automotive, Ltd. with TOKICO LTD., thereby forming Hitachi Vehicle Energy, Ltd. Through these structural reforms, we expect Hitachi to emerge as a leading supplier in the global automotive market.

Hitachi will be able to create more energy by producing lithium-ion batteries and help hybrid cars give greater mileage, but the company may face some technological barriers. Furthermore, globalization of some of its markets, commoditization of products and stagnation of industries may pose difficulty for the company to grow shareholder value.

Hitachi posted large revenue declines across all its segments in fiscal 2008, particularly in automotive-related products, due to a fall in demand. With a large amount of debt and low amount of cash on its balance sheet, Hitachi’s performance has been deteriorating over the past few years. We therefore maintain our Hold rating on Hitachi shares.

A Clear Picture On The US Debt Situation

More Posts By Michael Panzner Author's Website With all of the rhetoric, obfuscation, and spin coming out of Washington these days, some might find it hard to see just where our current policies are leading us. One look at the following chart of federal receipts, outlays, and borrowing, however, and the facts seem pretty clear.

Put that together with the following report from the Associated Press, “Mountain of Debt: Rising Debt May Be Next Crisis,” and it makes you wonder whether this year’s July 4th holiday should really be a time for celebration.

The Founding Fathers left one legacy not celebrated on Independence Day but which affects us all. It’s the national debt.

The country first got into debt to help pay for the Revolutionary War. Growing ever since, the debt stands today at a staggering $11.5 trillion - equivalent to over $37,000 for each and every American. And it’s expanding by over $1 trillion a year.

The mountain of debt easily could become the next full-fledged economic crisis without firm action from Washington, economists of all stripes warn.

“Unless we demonstrate a strong commitment to fiscal sustainability in the longer term, we will have neither financial stability nor healthy economic growth,” Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke recently told Congress.

Higher taxes, or reduced federal benefits and services - or a combination of both - may be the inevitable consequences.

The debt is complicating efforts by President Barack Obama and Congress to cope with the worst recession in decades as stimulus and bailout spending combine with lower tax revenues to widen the gap.

Interest payments on the debt alone cost $452 billion last year - the largest federal spending category after Medicare-Medicaid, Social Security and defense. It’s quickly crowding out all other government spending. And the Treasury is finding it harder to find new lenders. The United States went into the red the first time in 1790 when it assumed $75 million in the war debts of the Continental Congress.

Alexander Hamilton, the first treasury secretary, said, “A national debt, if not excessive, will be to us a national blessing.” Some blessing.

Since then, the nation has only been free of debt once, in 1834-1835. The national debt has expanded during times of war and usually contracted in times of peace, while staying on a generally upward trajectory. Over the past several decades, it has climbed sharply - except for a respite from 1998 to 2000, when there were annual budget surpluses, reflecting in large part what turned out to be an overheated economy. The debt soared with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and economic stimulus spending under President George W. Bush and now Obama.

The odometer-style “debt clock” near Times Square - put in place in 1989 when the debt was a mere $2.7 trillion - ran out of numbers and had to be shut down when the debt surged past $10 trillion in 2008.

The clock has since been refurbished so higher numbers fit. There are several debt clocks on Web sites maintained by public interest groups that let you watch hundreds, thousands, millions zip by in a matter of seconds.

The debt gap is “something that keeps me awake at night,” Obama says. He pledged to cut the budget “deficit” roughly in half by the end of his first term. But “deficit” just means the difference between government receipts and spending in a single budget year. This year’s deficit is now estimated at about $1.85 trillion.

Deficits don’t reflect holdover indebtedness from previous years. Some spending items - such as emergency appropriations bills and receipts in the Social Security program - aren’t included, either, although they are part of the national debt.

The national debt is a broader, and more telling, way to look at the government’s balance sheets than glancing at deficits.

According to the Treasury Department, which updates the number “to the penny” every few days, the national debt was $11,518,472,742,288 on Wednesday.

The overall debt is now slightly over 80 percent of the annual output of the entire U.S. economy, as measured by the gross domestic product.

By historical standards, it’s not proportionately as high as during World War II, when it briefly rose to 120 percent of GDP. But it’s still a huge liability.

Also, the United States is not the only nation struggling under a huge national debt. Among major countries, Japan, Italy, India, France, Germany and Canada have comparable debts as percentages of their GDPs.

Where does the government borrow all this money from? The debt is largely financed by the sale of Treasury bonds and bills. Even today, amid global economic turmoil, those still are seen as one of the world’s safest investments. That’s one of the rare upsides of U.S. government borrowing.

Treasury securities are suitable for individual investors and popular with other countries, especially China, Japan and the Persian Gulf oil exporters, the three top foreign holders of U.S. debt.

But as the U.S. spends trillions to stabilize the recession-wracked economy, helping to force down the value of the dollar, the securities become less attractive as investments. Some major foreign lenders are already paring back on their purchases of U.S. bonds and other securities. And if major holders of U.S. debt were to flee, it would send shock waves through the global economy - and sharply force up U.S. interest rates.

As time goes by, demographics suggest things will get worse before they get better, even after the recession ends, as more baby boomers retire and begin collecting Social Security and Medicare benefits.

While the president remains personally popular, polls show there is rising public concern over his handling of the economy and the government’s mushrooming debt - and what it might mean for future generations.

If things can’t be turned around, including establishing a more efficient health care system, “We are on an utterly unsustainable fiscal course,” said the White House budget director, Peter Orszag.

Some budget-restraint activists claim even the debt understates the nation’s true liabilities. The Peter G. Peterson Foundation, established by a former commerce secretary and investment banker, argues that the $11.4 trillion debt figures does not take into account roughly $45 trillion in unlisted liabilities and unfunded retirement and health care commitments. That would put the nation’s full obligations at $56 trillion, or roughly $184,000 per American, according to this calculation. ___ On the Net: Peter G. Peterson Foundation independent assessment of the national debt: http://www.pgpf.org/