Very very rarely short a stock or the market

https://x.com/adamkhootrader/status/1760935336220434927 (Adam Khoo) This is the reason I very very rarely short a stock or the market, even though I think a correction is coming or if I think a stock is overvalued and full of crap. "I'm constantly fighting my bearishness about the world. One of the great hedge fund managers of all rime, Bob Wilson, greatest short seller ever, said he made 90% of his money on the long side, the math just works against you. If you're perfect on a short, you can double your money. But if you're wrong on a short, you can lose 10 times your money. If you're dead wrong on a long, you lose your money. But if you're right, you can make 10 times your money. It's a mathematical inverse of that with shorting. You don't have to be a rocket scientist. I know, therefore, that if you have a bearish bias, you have to be very aware of it. You have to work around it. And I always have." - Stanley Druckenmiller

The Biggest Scam In The History Of Mankind (Debt Ceiling Truth)

VERY well written article By Michael Snyder, on June 23rd, 2013

The Biggest Ponzi Scheme In The History Of The World

TRADER or INVESTOR

well written blog about TRADER vs INVESTOR...by Jay Tun

Trading For a Living

Is Tony Robbins Right About The Coming Economic Collapse?

An article(by Michael Snyder) I think will let you think about....By Michael Snyder on August 21, 2010

Friday’s Food For Fear

Interesting article from my mentor... (pls click on title to re-direct) RESPECT him...

10 Small Caps With High “Insider Ownership”

By Marc Norton on September 16, 2009 More Posts By Marc Norton Author's Website

All 10 stocks mentioned below offer double digit rates of return on equity as well as assets. ROE is a corporations measurement of how profitable the company is with the money shareholders have invested. ROA shows how efficient management is at using its assets to generate earnings. All ten are trading at reasonable P/E ratios. All 10 mentioned have current ratios above 1.9, any thing above 1.5 shows that the company is capable at paying back short term debt. All 10 have a large inside ownership with modest to low debt and free cash flow, with each paying a dividend.

* Deep Value Investor Seth Klarman of The Baupost Group holds 8.49 million shares of BreitBurn Energy which accounts for over 16% of the stock.

Sooner Rather Than Later

Posted by Conrad June 12, 2009 http://www.conradalvinlim.com/?p=1103 You enter a trade. It goes well for the first few moments. Then without warning, it turns and goes the wrong way! Horror of horrors! Now in the heat of the moment, you battle your wits for the best decision to make as the trade gets worse … cut now? … or wait a while more? The same thing happened last month. You decided to cut your losses fast. And as soon as you did, the trade turned around and went on to be a big winner had you not cut and run.

• “Why didn’t you wait?”
• “Why were you so hasty?”

Then last week, the same thing happened again and being smarter, you decided to hold out. The trade continued losing. The longer you held it, the more you lost. But you knew then that as soon as you cut your loss, it would have turned around. So you held on and the losses kept mounting.

• “Why didn’t I cut sooner?”
• “Why did I hold on for so long?”

By the time you made that cut, the loss was insurmountable. And the trade turned around right after the cut. Let’s resign ourselves to one fact; Whatever the decision, it will always be the wrong one. So a simple lesson in this is that if we are going to make a decision, it WILL always be the wrong one. Cutting losses fast will return the trade. Cutting too late will continue the trend. What ever you decide, the market is going to take the mickey out of you. So to overcome this dilemma, ask yourself a simple question: “Is it better to make the wrong decision sooner or later?” The answer is obvious, isn’t it? I don’t know why anyone, in their right mind, would want to prolong an agony. If any decision you make is going to be the wrong one, then get it over and done with it quickly. Here’s another line of logic … You know that the moment you cut, the trade will return. So why don’t you cut it quickly and be ready for another entry as soon as the trade returns? (okay, that is speculative … but it works for the psychology!) At least it is obviously better than running the losses deeper. Likewise, you know that you are always going to take profit too early. So what can you do? Answer: Make the wrong decision early because making it too late will surely eat away your profits or could even end up with profits becoming losses. But in profit taking, you do have the advantage of taking some profit and leaving some to be greedy. It is always a good way to manage your profits. Take it when you have it but do it in stages. For example, if you have 10 lots long and they’re making some money, take half off the table when you reach your time/profit target. Let the remaining five lots run. The worst that can happen now is you can still get out at break-even if the trade turns against you. If the 5 remaining lots continue the profitable trend, when the trade hits a resistance, or if it stalls, take three more lots of the table and see what happens to the last two. At this point in time, you’ll have no fear and nothing but greed to manage. Should the remaining two lots reverse, your worst case scenario is that you can still get out at breakeven on those two lots and still get to keep the profits of the first eight lots. In a best case scenario, you are now in a position to put on a trailing stop and let the profits of the last two run to the sky. So avoid procrastinating on your trading decision. Make it quick, make it sensible and make it happen … make it sooner and never later. Moral of the story is that in Trading, it is NOT “better late than never” because in Trading, late is as good as never.

Just finished reading Conrad's notes (Wealth Academy Trader) and practising on Fibonacci(FIB). 1 of the exercises is to practise FIB on the Dow Jones(INDU). Try that on the downside seems mkt is bearish and if I did it correctly, INDU MAY drop to ~11600 in 2mths. That means end of April, I should see INDU at around that point. We'll see.... Hopefully, I using the FIB correctly.... if I found there is wrong, I'll be back ya.... Cheers!