The euro already faces a sea of troubles, but it could confront one more: It is becoming a favorite funding currency of the "carry trade."
Analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC and French bank BNP Paribas SA expect the euro to suffer at the hands of the carry trade, one of the riskier investment strategies in the currency market. Such trades involve borrowing money in countries such as Japan, where interest rates are low, then investing it where rates are higher and pocketing the difference.
How the Carry Trade Works
Carry trades usually put downward pressure on the currency that is borrowed while turbo-charging the currencies that are purchased. That suggests investors may continue punishing Europe's currency, which already is down 14% against the dollar this year, even if Europe's sovereign-debt jitters abate.
"The euro is the clear-cut funding currency of choice," said Alan Ruskin, currency analyst at RBS, in a report this month. "The market senses the mess. Participants understand that monetary union is in a jam." Mr. Ruskin expects the euro to fall to $1.1650 by the end of this year.
Monday afternoon in New York, the euro slumped against the dollar and some other currencies, ending last week's rally that saw it climb from a four-year low of $1.2142. Monday, it was trading at $1.2406 from $1.2574 late Friday, and it also was down against the Australian dollar and Canadian dollar.
To be sure, investors aren't doing carry trades the way they used to before the crisis. At the height of the boom, calm markets allowed hedge funds to make big bets with borrowed money on relatively small differences in expected interest rates. By contrast, today's carry trades are just bets on the global economic recovery: You invest in, say, Australia or Brazil—countries rich with commodities that do well when economic growth is strong—and finance yourself as cheaply as possible, usually through Japanese yen or U.S. dollars.
Tobia Kleinschmidt/European Pressphoto Agency
It is hard to find actual data proving that investors are doing carry trades or using specific currencies. But last week's swings in the exchange rate between the euro and the Australian dollar, a currency that had been soaring because of its link to fast-expanding China through commodity sales, provide some evidence that investors are using euros to finance bets.
"One of the most popular trades in [currency] markets since early 2009 has been to sell the euro versus commodity [currencies], for example, the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar," analysts at Dutch bank ING Groep NV said in a note Monday. "Last week saw an abrupt reversal of this trend."
The euro jumped some 8% against the Australian dollar last week as investors closed out these trades, which meant buying the euro and selling the currencies on which they bet.
The euro area still doesn't offer the cheapest borrowing costs compared with the U.S. and Japan. For one thing, the European Central Bank, which handles monetary policy for the 16-nation euro zone, keeps its benchmark interest rate at 1%, above the Bank of England's 0.5% rate and the Federal Reserve's range of zero to 0.25%. The cost of borrowing dollars for three months in the interbank lending market also is lower than that for borrowing euros.
But some investors are starting to see the euro as a potential borrowing tool.
"There is much more competition for funding currencies now," said Ken Dickson, a currencies portfolio manager at Standard Life Investments in Edinburgh, which manages some £146 billion ($211 billion) in assets.
There are several reasons for this shift. First, Europe's economic growth remains sluggish and likely will lag behind that of the U.K. and the U.S. next year, analysts said. The euro zone's debt crisis, along with austerity measures announced in Greece, Ireland, Spain and Germany, may further hamper growth.
That, in turn, suggests the ECB may keep interest rates lower for longer to nurture the region's recovery, Standard Life's Mr. Dickson said. Currency investors prefer higher interest rates because these boost returns. Inflation, meanwhile, remains low in Europe, which suggests the ECB won't necessarily be under pressure to raise interest rates.
Making things worse, the ECB's decision to start buying government bonds of weak euro-zone countries to prop up their funding efforts has increased doubts about the future of the euro zone itself. This is why many analysts are now bearish about the euro, with French bank BNP Paribas, the gloomiest of the bunch, betting the euro will reach parity and even lower against the dollar early next year.
At the same time, the U.S. dollar and the yen, the usual carry-trade currencies, are jumping in value as investors rush into safe havens, making it more difficult to borrow in them.
The euro hit $1.50 late last year, a level that analysts and European policy makers have deemed too high. Many consider the euro's "fair value" against the dollar to be about $1.25, roughly where it is now. From this point of view, the currency simply has come back to reality.
But analysts warn that the emergence of euro-funded carry trades may mean that even if better news about Europe materializes in the months ahead, the currency may stay under pressure for months to come.
One of my life mentors, Adam wrote this piece (copy from his BLOG). Hope you enjoy.
In life, we come across people who seem to have spectacular success and the richest of rewards. They may own multi-million dollar businesses, are recognized for being the greatest in their field and may enjoy passionate and deeply fulfilling relationships.
It is not uncommon to look at these people who have life’s greatest rewards with a tinge of jealousy and envy. It is not uncommon to think that these people have been in some way blessed with more luck, more brains or more talent.
However, if you study the lives of highly successful individuals, you would find that at some point in their lives, they went through the greatest of problems and challenges. A business failure, bankruptcy, life threatening illness, divorce, lawsuit, financial loss etc… They all went through a time when life seemed unfair and things seemed hopeless. A time when the average person would cry, run away and surrender in defeat. The only reason why they are where there are today is because they refused to quit, they refused to accept defeat, they kept getting up and moving forward until they succeeded.
So, how do I know this? It’s because I have spent the last 20 years of my life studying successful people (by reading their biographies) and understanding what was really behind their tremendous success. In fact, I have found that the bigger the problems they had to overcome in the past, the bigger their rewards were at the end of the day.
The Story of Steve Jobs
A great example would be that of Steve Jobs, the founder and current CEO of Apple Inc. Apple Inc is one of the most successful technology companies in the world today, with a leadership position in the phone (iphone), music (itunes) and computer industry (Macs). Steve is one of the wealthiest and most successful technopreneurs the world has ever seen and has been nominated as CEO of the decade.
However, to get to where he is today, he had to make it through the toughest of times. At the beginning of his life, things were tough. He was born to an unwed college student who put him up for adoption. He was supposed to be adopted by a lawyer and his wife. However at the last minute, the couple decided that they did not want a boy and so instead, Steve was given away to a poor couple with little education.
Although Steve worked hard in school and made it to Reed College, the had to drop out after just one year as his parents life savings were not enough to pay for his college tuition. He had no money to eat so he had to return empty bottles for 5 cents and use the money to eat snacks. He only got one good meal a week at the Hari krishna temple where he had to walk 7 miles to. He had no money for rent so he slept on the floor of his friend’s dorm rooms in the university.
Because he dropped out of college and could not get a degree, Steve developed the habit of educating himself through reading free books from the library and developed a strong hunger for success. His lack of proper education forced him to become a creative genius. Starting from his parents garage with nothing but spare parts, he designed and developed a revolutionary computer called the Apple.
With nothing but his passion and hunger for success, Steve built a company from two people (his friend Woz) into a company with 6,000 people an over a billion dollars in sales in just a few year. Then, his life took another huge dive. He was fired by the new CEO that was brought in to run the company. Imagine how embarrassing and disgraceful it is to be fired from a company you started. Instead of giving up in shame, he started a new computer company called NEXT computers. That company failed a few years later and Steve lost alot of money.
However, he still wouldn’t quit and started another company named Pixar Animation. Pixar almost failed, until it was given the chance by Disney to make the groundbreaking animated movie TOY STORY. When everything seemed like it was going well, Steve was diagnosed with Pancreatic cancer and was given a few months to live. Steve still didn’t quit and fought his cancer and fought to rebuild his business and fortune. Just when everything seemed hopeless, his life turned around.
He survived the cancer after his tumour was removed and went on to engineer his return to Apple, which was on the verge of bankruptcy after mismanagement. The technology he developed at NEXT computers and Pixar gave him the ability to turn Apple into a super successful company again, making him one of the greatest CEOs of all time. Today, almost everyone who is young and hip wants an ipod, iphone or a Mac, all because of Steve.
The Story of Singapore
Today, I am proud to say that Singapore is ranked one of the richest countries in the world by GDP per capita (ranked #3 by IMF and the World Bank). Despite having no natural resources and being a tiny island, it is respected for having one of the world’s best airport, port, education system and military. Again, all this success came about only because Singapore went through huge challenges and its people never gave up.
If you know history, there was a time when Singapore’s future seemed bleak and hopeless too. When Singapore was told to leave the Malaysian federation, many predicted that Singapore would not survive by itself. Singapore had no military for defence, no natural resources (not even enough water) and an economy that was unsustainable. To make things worse, the British Forces decided to pull out shortly after, leaving the island on the brink of possible collapse. Even Lee Kwan Yew, the Prime Minister at the time, cried on National television from the pain of the separation and Singapore’s uncertain future.
Yet, he, and the small population of pioneers refused to quit and accept a life of failure or mediocrity. They dared to dream that one day, Singapore would not just survive but thrive into one of the most successful developed countries in the world. Did everything go according to plan? Of course not. It never does. Initially, no country offered to help Singapore build up its army. There were racial riots, communists challenging the government, food shortage, assassination attempts and social unrest. The prime minister himself, experienced times when he almost collapsed from exhaustion and was hospitalized from the tremendous stress. Then just went things seemed hopeless, things started to turn around and slowly but surely, the nation progressed to where it is today.
The Ultimate Test
One of the lessons I have learnt from all these stories is that there will ALWAYS be times in our life when we will go through times of extreme pain, problems, disappointment, failure and hardship. They will be times when we feel that life is unfair to us. That despite all that we have done, thing do not turn out the way we want.
I call these times ‘Life’s Ultimate Tests’. For many people, they allow these situations to completely destroy their faith, confidence and future success. They never quit and never recover. However, for a few, it is times like these that they find the inner strength and turn themselves into stronger people.
I can tell you from personal experience, that I have been through many of such situations in my life as well… both in my businesses and in my relationships. There were many times in my business and my relationships that I felt like quitting because everything seemed so hopeless and unfair. However, thank goodness, I eventually found the strength to get up from each defeat and keep moving forward. Now, looking back, it was these painful periods that allow me to enjoy the greatest rewards that I enjoy today.
The Power of Contrast
So, what kept me going? What gave me the ability to never give up and to never surrender? The first secret I used was the power of CONTRAST. To many of us, our problems may seem really huge and painful. Often times, this ‘impossible’ problem is only our perception! You can bet that somewhere in the world, there is something who is going through something 10 times worst than you are… and they are able to do it.
So, to inspire myself, I would read stories about other people who are going through extreme challenges in their life and find out how they get through it. After reading about them, my problems would suddenly seem so easy and achievable in contrast.
Some of the people who have inspired me the most include the story of the Hoyt Family. It is about a father who has to take care of his son, Rick, who was born with Cerebral Palsy and was paralyzed from the neck down. Rick was also unable to speak from birth. Despite doctors telling father Dick that his son will never be able to go to school or to work, Dick never gave up on his son. With his father’s help, Rick has participated in over 900 marathons, graduated from college and works in a full time job today. You can watch a video about the Hoyt family in my earlier post.
Another inspiring role model I have often blogged about is 86 year old Lim Yow Tong. In the 1996, Lim was declared a bankrupt after Emporium, the company he built for over 40 years, collapsed. At the age of 72, Lim’s total business debts were over $100 million. Instead of feeling sorry for himself and resigning himself to a fate of poverty, Lim refused to stay bankrupt. At age 72, when things would seem hopeless and impossible for most people his age and with his level of debt, he decided to start all over again. He left Singapore, going to Brunei and Malaysia to restart his business, with money from new investors.
10 years later, at the age of 82, Lim became a millionaire once more and was worth over $4 million. You can read more about him in my earlier post as well.
The Four Beliefs That Keep Me Going
Besides the power of contrast, what also enables me to get through the toughest periods of my life have been four beliefs that empower me constantly.
Belief #1: Everything Happens For A Reason
Many people give up when things seem tough because they see their suffering as being pointless and unfair. When they fail or experience huge setbacks, they see it as because they are not good enough, that what they are doing is not meant to be or that they are just unlucky. They tend to ask themselves, ‘why must this happen to me????’
I have always been able to stay confident and motivated because I believe that everything, no matter how bad it seems now, happens for a good reason. It is to either to teach me a valuable lesson to become better or there is somehow a blessing in disguise. As long as I keep taking action, the ‘problem’ will soon be revealed into a ‘blessing’. Believing in this has always given me the strength to carry on.
8 years ago, an interior design company I started with a partner was facing financial difficulties. After investing $250,000 just 12 months earlier, the company was facing severe cash flow problems. Sales that was projected to come in, never materialized. When the company was not able to pay its creditors, debt collectors came after me every day! I was harassed and threatened. When my partner was declared a bankrupt, I was left as a sole director, liable for the few hundred thousand in debt that was incurred. It was one of the most painful and stressful periods of my life!
Now looking back, I have realized that huge business failure of mine was a true blessing in disguise, because it taught me the most powerful lessons on business that allowed me to build the range of successful companies I have today. It taught me about prudent financial management and how to really select the right partners and team I can trust.These are lessons that school/ books could never teach me. It gave me the courage, wisdom and foresight to be able to build one of the largest education companies in Asia, starting with just $8,000. If I never had that big fall, I would never have picked up the mindset and skills of a truly great entrepreneur.
Belief #2:Every Event, No Matter How Bad, Will End.
The second belief that has kept me going through the toughest times is that no matter how bad an event is, it will always come to an end. Nothing bad lasts forever. Every recession will come to an end. With it will come the next economic boom. The pain of every relationship breakup will come to an end. With it will come the chance to create new and even better relationships. The earthquake in Haiti, no matter how disastrous it is now, will come to an end. With it will come the chance to rebuild the town and the people. We just have to make sure that we mentally make it to the end and are there to enjoy the start of a new beginning. It is rather sad when people commit suicide. To me, it is like a permanent solution to a temporary problem.
It is this belief that also gave me the opportunity to make lots of money during the financial crisis. In January 2009, stock markets had fallen so much (The US market was down 55%, Singapore was down 65% and China was down 70%), that many people thought that stocks would never recover. Prices seemed to be going down day after day with no end in sight.
Many people chose to sell at huge losses or were to fearful to buy when prices were so low. However, I believed that every market crash would end. Following it would be the greatest stock market rally in history. So in that same month, I wrote a book (in 30 days) called Profit from the Panic and invested 80% of all my money into the stock market. Sure enough, 2 months later, in March 2009, the crash ended and stocks began to see one of their biggest rise in the last 50 years! Stocks I bought at $2 were worth $12, making me a nice fortune.
Belief #3: Whatever Does Not Kill Me, Will Make Me Stronger
The third belief I have is that whatever does not kill me will make me stronger. Because of my parents divorce at age 13, I became a much stronger person emotionally. I learnt to be independent. Because I was dumped and heart broken by three girlfriends from age 16-22, I became a much stronger and smarter person. Because I lost over $150,000 in the stock market as a newbie investor in my early twenties, it has make me a much stronger and wiser investor today. Because my interior design company went bankrupt 8 years ago and I survived it, I have no fear of failure today.
Belief #4: It Is Always The Darkest Before Dawn
Finally, I have found that it is usually the darkest before dawn. What this means is that when things become the very worst it can be, it usually the signal that things will turn around. Did you know that seconds before the sun rises, the night is usually the darkest? Did you know that just before the stock market reverses and starts recovering, the majority of people panic and sell everything they have? It is called the ‘capitulation effect’. Capitulate means to surrender. Only when all the stock sellers have surrendered and sold everything they have left, the stock buyers will then come in and start pushing prices up again.
Watch any movie and you would see the same phenomenon. Just before the happy ending, the hero usually goes through a period when everything goes wrong and things seem hopeless. That’s when things suddenly turn around and the movie ends with success. As corny as it sounds, thats the way life is. The trouble is many people give up at that darkest point and never get to see the dawn.
A Short Video On Never Giving Up
Two years ago, I talked about Nick Vujicic, the man who was born without arms or legs. Here’s a video about him which I love. It’s about him talking about never ever giving up. It is not how you start. It is not what happens in the middle. It is how you finish. Are you going to finish strong? Enjoy it.
To end on a lighter note, I realized that even a tiny reptile like a lizard knows the meaning of never giving up until his last breath! Something we can definitely learn from.
BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- RBC Capital Markets on Tuesday downgraded shares of Visa Inc. to outperform from top pick after the stock gained 67% in 2009 and outpaced the S&P 500 Index by a wide margin. "Our positive views of the company remain unchanged and we continue to recommend purchase of the shares," RBC said in a note to clients. "We believe 2009 was a year that favored the 'safety trade,' which in Visa's case meant a focus on the non-discretionary spending in the debit market. In 2010, we believe the continued deleveraging by U.S. consumers will support debit transaction growth, but would look for the emerging economies to drive the overall revenue growth." RBC raised its target price on Visa shares to $97 from $89, saying despite the stock's strong run in 2009, it continues to believe "premium companies will receive premium multiples."
I saw this video and it really touched my heart. It something I would thought impossible but this MAN(sorry, should be HERO) made it..... they completed the Ironman and not just once....!
Every father should watch this...
Extract from www.Retirerichblog.com (I love this website, have been follwing it for quite sometime now)
His firm made $20 billion between 2007 and early 2009 by betting against the housing market and big financial companies. Mr. Paulson's personal cut would amount to nearly $4 billion, or more than $10 million a day. That was more than the 2007 earnings of J.K. Rowling, Oprah Winfrey and Tiger Woods combined.
From FT.com Published: November 20 2009 18:26 Last updated: November 20 2009 18:26
Since Jim Rogers, 67, co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros he has worked as a guest professor of finance at Columbia University and as an economic commentator. In 1998, he founded the Rogers International Commodities Index (RICI).
He is the author of A Bull in China, Hot Commodities, Adventure Capitalist and Investment Biker. His latest book is A Gift to My Children, a father’s lessons for life and investing.
When you realised that you had made your first million were you tempted to slow down?
I can remember the exact day of my first million dollars’ net worth. It was in November 1977. I was 35. I knew I needed more than that to do what I wanted when I was 37 – the age I decided to stop working to seek adventure.
What is the secret of your success?
As I was not smarter than most people, I was willing to work harder than most. I was prepared to examine conventional wisdom. If everyone thinks one way, it is likely to be wrong. If you can figure out that it is wrong, you are likely to make a lot of money.
What has been your most spectacular gain?
The Quantum Fund. When we started the company in 1970, I had $600 in my pocket. Within 10 years, the portfolio had gained 4,200 per cent.
What is your basic investment strategy?
Buy low and sell high. I try to find something that is very cheap, where a positive change is taking place. Then I do enough homework to make sure I am right. It has got to be cheap so that, if I am wrong, I don’t lose much money. Every time I make a mistake, it is usually because I did not do enough homework.
The US Labor Department announced Friday that the unemployment rate rose to a 26-year high of 10.2% in October, an increase of 0.4 of a percentage point, even though the labor force contracted as well.
The graph below, courtesy of Chart of the Day, illustrates the unemployment rate since 1948 and provides some perspective on the current state of the labor market. As shown, Friday’s increase above the 10% level marks only the second time such a move has occurred during the post-World War II era.
Closer analysis of the chart indicates that the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, peaking after the end of a recession. However, in the case of the previous two recessions the rate only peaked several quarters following an improvement in real GDP.
Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust) said: “A similar case is projected for the current recovery. Our forecast is for the unemployment rate to peak in mid-2010. At the same time, real GDP should continue to advance during the final months of 2009 and all of 2010.
Some companies just stand out - both in their own sectors and in the larger market.
Australian firm BHP Billiton (BHP: 68.15 +0.32 +0.47%) is one of them.
As the largest and most diversified commodities producer in the world, BHP has leading positions in most key, low-cost, metal and mineral deposits in the world.
And as if that weren’t enough, it also has a solid position in oil, thanks to its petroleum division, which had operating profits of $4 billion last year.
Impressively, that total only made the petroleum division BHP’s third-best performer in 2008. Its iron ore segment scooped up $6.23 billion, while base metals enjoyed a $4.62 billion operating profit.
Crucially, that sets BHP’s oil division apart from its competitors. Not only does it bring in extra revenue, it’s also not overly reliant on the commodity fuel its operations.
So what does this mean for investors?
BHP’s Big Three: Profits, Cash, Growth
Thanks to BHP’s highly disciplined management team, investors have seen consistent profitability. And with $5.6 billion in net debt, that’s significantly less than many fellow mining companies.
In addition, with BHP sitting on almost $11 billion in cash, rumors are swirling that it’s chasing acquisitions, especially in oil and potash.
However, it has no need to rush out and buy anything right away. Thanks in part to a recent $116 billion deal with Rio Tinto plc (RTP: 193.77 +3.20 +1.68%) to merge the Pilbara iron ore operations in Western Australia, BHP is already well positioned with what it has.
Including the $5.8 billion it plans to sink into the Pilbara venture, BHP has a total of $17 billion already set aside for pre-existing projects over the next 12 months, highlighting the fact that it can grow simply by developing its own rich global asset portfolio.
BHP is Perfectly Poised in Emerging Markets
Like many other companies, BHP knows the strategic importance of establishing a strong base in emerging markets.
And deals like the one with Rio Tinto build strong, long-term shareholder value and help BHP fulfill its long-term mandate of capitalizing on booming emerging market demand.
The rise in consumer purchasing power in China, India, Brazil and other emerging economies will lead to a sharp spike in electricity consumption, as wealthier consumers buy televisions, refrigerators, washing machines and other consumer electronic items.
BHP sees energy demand alone growing at an annual 8% pace in China and 7% in India… and it has positioned itself perfectly to capitalize on those trends.
Coal: This still accounts for about 40% of global energy production, which suits BHP just fine, since it’s one of the largest producers of thermal coal in the world. Even better, the company produces copious amounts of coking coal, a commodity the steel industry depends on and one that emerging economies need vast quantities of.
Nuclear: Both China and India have plans to build numerous nuclear power plants over the coming decades. And BHP is already poised to take advantage through its Olympic Dam project in Australia, the world’s largest uranium deposit.
With a strong grasp on not only the commodities market, but also the countries most likely to need them, BHP is a must-have for any investor interested in taking advantage of the commodities markets and fast-growing global economies.
